The Players Championship Live Odds and Prediction: Rory McIlroy Within Striking Distance Ahead of Final Round

We’re three rounds into the 2025 edition of the Players Championship, and the tournament has lived up to expectations so far.

We have a bunched-up leaderboard through three rounds of hectic, windy, roller coaster rounds at TPC Sawgrass. J.J. Spaun lipped in a par putt on the 54th hole of the event to hold a one-stroke lead heading into Sunday’s final round. Bud Cauley sits one stroke back of him at 11 under par. Lucas Glover and Alex Smalley are tied for third at 9 under, and then Corey Conners, Rory McIlroy, and Akshay Bhatia are grouped in at T5 at 8 under.

So, who’s going to step up and win the unofficial fifth major? Let’s take a look at the live odds, and then I’ll break down my prediction.

J.J. Spaun is the 54-hole leader and the live favorite to win at +210 odds, an implied probability of 29.41%.

Who will win The Players Championship?

If you think Spaun is the obvious live bet to make heading into the final round, think again. There have been nine golfers who have been leading the Players heading into the final round since 2007 and not a single golfer converted the lead into a win.

So, if we’re going to look in a different direction, which name should we lock in? I’m looking at a name we’re all familiar with: Rory McIlroy.

Of all the names in contention, he’s the only one with a track record of consistent success at big events throughout his career. Not only that, but of any golfer who is T5 or better, he’s the one with the best approach numbers this season, gaining an average of +1.72 strokes per round with his irons.