Why Justin Thomas could be headed to a comeback year in 2025

As professional golf’s fall season continues and the sport remains in its general offseason, it’s a good time for The Athletic to dive into some broader debates and discussions about what we expect in 2025. Consider it a chance to engage in barroom golf discussion. If you have any topics or ideas you want to hear from our writers on, please do suggest in the comments.

First, let’s discuss who I’m buying stock in for 2025.

There’s a line that gets thrown around by golfers pretty often. Think of it as their version of football coaches talking about the turnover battle or baseball players reducing each weird break over a long season as “that’s just baseball.” It’s the routine oversimplification golfers use to explain their form in a volatile sport where results might not tell us the whole story.

“I’m not getting enough out of my game right now.”

The simple translation? They feel like they’re playing good golf but not scoring well enough to match it. The even more simple breakdown? It usually means they’re not putting well.

And no golfer uttered this phrase more in 2024 than Justin Thomas. Yes, the Ryder Cup star with two PGA Championship trophies and 15 PGA Tourwins, a former world No. 1 who fell so far in 2023 he didn’t even qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs and whose inclusion on the Ryder Cup team became a huge debate. And as Thomas failed to win a single tournament this year or even really contend, it became easy for the masses to generalize that Thomas was still in his 2023 struggles.

It’s why at the 2024 PGA Championship in his hometown of Louisville (and many other times after), Thomas said, “I feel like I’m playing well. I feel like I haven’t necessarily gotten as much out of my golf as I feel like I’ve been playing, which can be frustrating at times. But it also just reminds me that I am close and I just need to kind of stay patient.”

The thing is he’s right. That’s why I’m buying a comeback year for Thomas that ends with a win on tour and a Ryder Cup selection.

The memory of his 2023 disaster — he fell to No. 70 on DataGolf and No. 71 in the FedEx Cup standings — has had a long tail. When Thomas was left off the Presidents Cup team in September, many argued in favor of the decision like he was still that player from 2023. He’s been back in the top 25 for 11 months. As of this moment, he’s No. 18 on DataGolf. He’s not back to the JT we all know, but he was the seventh-best eligible U.S. golfer this season in true strokes gained.